Load Shedding Alert: What South Africans Can Expect This Winter
Load Shedding Alert: What South Africans Can Expect This Winter
South Africans are being urged to brace for a challenging winter season as the threat of load shedding looms large. With the country’s energy system under immense strain, economists, energy analysts, and Eskom itself have raised red flags over rising electricity demand, declining energy availability, and unpredictable outages.
Here’s what you need to know about the load shedding forecast for winter 2025.
Power System Strained: Key Insights from March 2025
According to the Minerals Council South Africa’s electricity update for March, the nation’s power grid remains critically constrained. The analysis, conducted by economist André Lourens, revealed the following:
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Energy Availability Factor (EAF) in March was 57.5% — only a marginal improvement from February’s 57.4%.
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Average electricity demand for the month: 22,509 MW.
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Average dispatchable generation: 22,357 MW.
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Result: 55 hours of load shedding were recorded in March alone.
From 7 to 10 March, South Africa lost 2,700 MW in generation capacity, including Koeberg Unit 2 and two Kusile units. This triggered emergency reliance on Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), which quickly depleted emergency reserves and led to load shedding.
“As these reserves were depleted, load shedding became necessary to restore emergency reserves,” said Lourens.
Eskom Confirms Grid Instability
In its latest update, Eskom acknowledged that the power system remains under pressure. Although load shedding was temporarily suspended, the utility highlighted a high Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) of 28.67% for the financial year so far — only a slight improvement from 31.92% in the same period last year.
Key concerns:
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Ongoing planned maintenance is essential but contributes to reduced capacity.
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Unpredictable breakdowns remain a constant risk.
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Overcast winter weather is expected to drive electricity demand even higher.
Despite these challenges, Eskom assured the public that emergency reserves are in place and a more detailed winter outlook will be released by the end of April 2025.
Energy Analysts Warn: Expect More Load Shedding
South Africa’s leading energy analysts are sounding the alarm:
Chris Yelland – Energy Analyst
“With year-to-date EAF of 56.73% and unplanned outages hovering around 30%, this is not where South Africa wants to be.”
Yelland also warned that South Africa’s heavy reliance on coal-fired power (around 80%) poses significant risks. Following a Stage 6 load shedding scare in February, he called for urgent intervention to improve reliability.
Professor Hartmut Winkler – Energy Expert
Winkler noted that while the recent break from load shedding was a relief, it was largely due to luck.
“We’ve been walking close to the line. Any sudden issue could push us back into power cuts.”
His prediction? Intermittent load shedding could continue for another 2–3 years unless Eskom addresses the structural issues within its generation fleet.
March 2025 in Review: A Troubling Trend
Here’s a quick snapshot of the March power situation:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| EAF | 57.5% |
| Average Demand | 22,509 MW |
| Dispatchable Generation | 22,357 MW |
| Load Shedding | 55 hours |
| UCLF | 28.67% (YTD) |
The numbers show that while Eskom is maintaining some level of stability, the system remains fragile heading into the colder months.
What South Africans Should Expect This Winter
The upcoming Eskom Winter Outlook 2025 will provide more clarity, but all signs point to a tough season ahead. Key takeaways for households and businesses include:
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Prepare for intermittent power outages, especially during peak hours.
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Invest in backup solutions such as inverters, generators, or solar power.
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Follow Eskom’s official updates and social media channels for real-time alerts.
Load Shedding Isn’t Over
While Eskom has made progress in maintaining emergency reserves and conducting planned maintenance, the underlying issues have not yet been resolved. The data, coupled with expert analysis, suggests that load shedding will remain part of life in South Africa—at least for the foreseeable future.
The best course of action for now? Stay informed, be prepared, and watch for Eskom’s upcoming winter forecast.
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