Fuel Prices Set to Level Off Next Week: Petrol to Drop Slightly, Diesel to Fall by Nearly R5
Petrol to Drop Slightly, Diesel to Fall by Nearly R5
Good news for South African motorists. Fuel prices are set to level off in June with petrol decreasing by 12-16 cents and diesel falling by up to R5.15 per litre. Find out the latest projections.
Introduction: A Welcome Break at the Pumps
After two months of punishing fuel price hikes driven by the war in the Gulf, South African motorists can finally expect some relief.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests that fuel prices are set to level off in June, with petrol expected to decrease by between 12 and 16 cents per litre and diesel set to fall by a massive R4.40 to R5.15 per litre.
This marks a significant turning point after April and May saw cumulative diesel hikes approaching nearly R13 per litre and petrol reaching all-time highs .
The Late-May Data Improvement
The final week of May has delivered a welcome twist. While the reintroduction of government fuel taxes remains a heavy burden, international market conditions have improved noticeably since the mid-month report .
| Factor | Improvement |
|---|---|
| Petrol 93 under-recovery | Vanished entirely, flipped to microscopic over-recovery |
| Petrol 95 under-recovery | Shrunk from 19 cents to just 6 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% over-recovery | Expanded from R4.41 to R4.91 per litre |
| Diesel 0.005% over-recovery | Widened from R3.52 to R4.11 per litre |
| Rand/Dollar exchange rate | Holding steady around R16.49 |
Source: Central Energy Fund late-May data
Projected Fuel Prices for June 2026
Petrol: Small Decrease Expected
| Fuel Type | Expected Change |
|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | -12 to -16 cents per litre |
| 95 Petrol | -12 to -16 cents per litre |
Diesel: Significant Drop
| Fuel Type | Expected Change |
|---|---|
| Diesel 0.05% (500ppm) | -R4.40 to -R5.15 per litre |
| Diesel 0.005% (50ppm) | -R4.40 to -R5.15 per litre |
Illuminating Paraffin
| Fuel Type | Expected Change |
|---|---|
| Illuminating Paraffin | -R4.37 per litre |
Why Are Prices Leveling Off?
Several factors are contributing to the improved fuel price outlook for June:
1. Stabilising Global Oil Prices
The war in the Gulf caused extreme volatility in global oil markets over the past two months. However, oil prices have now settled into a narrower range, albeit still firmly above $100 a barrel .
2. Resilient South African Rand
The rand has shown remarkable resilience, holding steady at around R16.49 to the US dollar. A stronger rand helps counter international fuel price increases .
3. Strong Diesel Over-Recoveries
Diesel markets have seen particularly strong over-recoveries, meaning international prices have fallen significantly relative to the domestic price .
The Tax Reality Check
While the underlying market data is positive, it is important to note that the government’s temporary fuel levy relief is being phased out .
| Fuel Type | Relief Removed in June | Relief Removed in July |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol | R1.50 per litre | R1.50 per litre (remaining) |
| Diesel | R1.97 per litre | R1.96 per litre (remaining) |
The fuel levy relief was introduced in April and extended into May to cushion consumers from the Middle East oil shock. From 3 June 2026, half of this relief will be added back to the fuel price, with the full tax amount restored in July .
Without this tax add-back, petrol would actually be decreasing by around 19 cents per litre, and diesel would be falling by over R4.40 per litre .
Expected Pump Prices from 3 June 2026
Based on the late-May data and accounting for the partial return of the fuel levy, here are the projected prices at the pumps:
Inland (Gauteng)
| Fuel Type | May Official | June Expected | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R26.52 | ~R26.36 | -R0.16 |
| 95 Petrol | R26.63 | ~R28.47 | Note: Increase expected for 95 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R31.17 | R28.73 | -R2.44 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R31.88 | R30.33 | -R1.55 |
Important Note: The latest late-May data shows significant improvement. Final June prices may be more favourable, especially for petrol .
What About the Slate Levy?
The Slate Levy, which added R1.22 to May’s fuel price, could add a further variable to June’s official fuel price. This levy compensates fuel companies for price fluctuations in the previous month .
Long-Term Outlook: Government Exploring Solutions
Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Gwede Mantashe, is pushing for the establishment of a new state-owned company to tackle rising fuel prices. During his budget vote speech, Mantashe said that South Africa would need a long-term solution to fuel price shocks, as well as a deeper look at its over-reliance on imports .
The cabinet has also discussed a regionally coordinated response to the ongoing fuel price pressures, with Ministers Godongwana and Mantashe tasked with leading the South African contingent .
When Will the New Prices Take Effect?
The official fuel price adjustments for June 2026 will be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources at the end of May 2026. The new prices will take effect from 00:01 on Wednesday, 3 June 2026 .
Key Takeaways
- Petrol is expected to decrease by 12-16 cents per litre
- Diesel is set to fall by R4.40 to R5.15 per litre
- New prices take effect 3 June 2026
- R17.2 billion – Cost to government of the fuel subsidy
- The fuel levy relief is being phased out – R1.50/L added back to petrol and R1.97/L to diesel in June
- The rand has remained resilient at around R16.49 to the dollar
Frequently Asked Questions
Will petrol prices go down in June 2026?
Yes, according to the latest CEF data, petrol is expected to decrease by between 12 and 16 cents per litre from 3 June 2026 .
Why is diesel dropping more than petrol?
Diesel markets have experienced stronger over-recoveries than petrol, meaning international diesel prices have fallen more significantly relative to domestic prices .
What is the fuel levy relief?
The fuel levy relief was a temporary government measure that reduced the general fuel levy by R3 per litre for petrol and up to R3.93 per litre for diesel to cushion consumers from the Middle East oil shock. It is being phased out from June .
When will the official fuel price be announced?
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce the official June 2026 fuel prices at the end of May 2026 .
How much did diesel increase in April and May?
Cumulative diesel hikes over the past two months approached nearly R13 per litre .
Final Word
After months of pain at the pumps, South African motorists can finally look forward to some relief in June. Petrol is set to decrease by 12 to 16 cents per litre, while diesel could fall by as much as R5.15 per litre.
While the fuel levy relief is being phased out, the underlying market conditions have improved significantly, with a resilient rand and stabilising global oil prices contributing to the positive outlook.
The official announcement is expected at the end of May, with the new prices taking effect on 3 June 2026.
Disclaimer: These are projected prices based on late-May 2026 data from the Central Energy Fund. Final fuel prices will be confirmed by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources at the end of May 2026.
