South African Petrol Price Forecast: What to Expect in June 2025
South African Petrol Price Forecast June 2025
Updated: 21 May 2025
By Urban Street Culture News Desk
Motorists across South Africa are anxiously watching fuel prices as we head into June 2025. While some relief at the pumps seemed likely earlier this month, the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) paints a more cautious picture.
So, will petrol prices go down in June 2025? Let’s break it down.
Fuel Price Forecast for June 2025: The Latest Update
Based on average data from 2 to 19 May 2025, the latest over-recovery figures — which measure how much more South Africans are paying than the actual fuel cost — are gradually shrinking.
Here’s what the CEF’s over-recovery numbers show:
-
Petrol 95 ULP: +23.958 cents/litre
-
Petrol 93 ULP & LRP: +24.663 cents/litre
-
Diesel 0.05% sulphur: +50.873 cents/litre
-
Diesel 0.005% sulphur: +51.275 cents/litre
-
Illuminating Paraffin: +54.074 cents/litre
Key Insight: Diesel and paraffin are showing stronger over-recoveries than petrol, meaning they are more likely to see price cuts in June — but even those cuts may be smaller than previously expected.
Will Petrol Prices Drop in June?
As of now, petrol over-recoveries have weakened, hovering just under 9 cents per litre in the latest trend. This suggests the possibility of a small price cut for petrol, but the chances are diminishing unless we see a strong recovery in the last week of May.
Simply put:
-
Petrol: Small over-recovery → Minor or no price cut expected.
-
Diesel & Paraffin: Stronger over-recovery → Likely price drop, though smaller than originally forecasted.
What’s Causing the Shift in Fuel Price Predictions?
Two major global and local economic shifts are impacting the current petrol price outlook:
1. Global Oil Prices Are Rising
The price of Brent Crude Oil has increased from $63.88 to $65.71 per barrel, while WTI crude also climbed to $62.46 per barrel. Since South Africa imports refined fuel, these higher prices directly raise the base cost of our fuel.
2. The Rand Isn’t Strong Enough
Although the Rand averaged R18.0350 to the US dollar (ending 19 May), it hasn’t strengthened enough to cancel out rising oil prices. This limits the benefits of currency gains on fuel import costs.
What Goes Into the Price of Petrol in South Africa?
To understand why petrol prices change monthly, it’s important to know how the price is built up:
Base Fuel Price (BFP)
This includes the international price of fuel, shipping costs, insurance, and other logistics.
Government Levies and Taxes
These include:
-
General Fuel Levy
-
Road Accident Fund (RAF) Levy
-
Slate Levy
-
IP Tracer Levy
-
Petroleum Products Levy
Additional Costs
-
Wholesale and dealer margins
-
Storage and distribution
-
Zone differentials (e.g., inland vs coastal pricing)
-
Customs and excise duty
All of these components come together to form the final retail pump price.
How Reliable Are the CEF’s Over-Recovery Forecasts?
The CEF provides daily updates on over/under-recoveries, offering a solid indication of how fuel prices might shift. However, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) only confirms final prices based on:
-
Full monthly average of over/under-recoveries
-
Final exchange rates
-
Global refined fuel trends
-
Adjustments to levies, duties, or shipping costs
The official petrol and diesel prices for June 2025 will be announced around the last business day of May.
Final Verdict: Expect a Cautious June at the Pumps
While there’s still some room for diesel and paraffin price drops, petrol users may not see much change in June. Any cuts will likely be modest, and there’s also a chaIce prices could remain flat or even increase slightly if oil prices climb further.
Summary – South African Fuel Price Outlook for June 2025:
| Fuel Type | Over-Recovery (as of 19 May) | June Price Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol 95 ULP | +23.958 c/l | Small/no decrease likely |
| Petrol 93 ULP/LRP | +24.663 c/l | Small/no decrease likely |
| Diesel (0.05%) | +50.873 c/l | Decrease likely, but limited |
| Diesel (0.005%) | +51.275 c/l | Decrease likely, but limited |
| Paraffin | +54.074 c/l | Decrease likely |
Pro Tip:
Stay up to date by checking in with the DMRE’s official announcements and follow trusted sources like Urban Street Culture for clear, accurate breakdowns of petrol and diesel price changes.
Got Thoughts?
How are rising or falling fuel prices affecting your daily life or business? Share your story in the comments below, or tag us on social media @UrbanStreetCulture_ZA.
Disclaimer: This article is based on speculative data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) and other public sources. Fuel prices may change due to global economic factors and local government decisions. Always consult official sources for confirmed pricing.
