eskom winter loadshedding warning

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Load Shedding Warning for Winter: Experts Predict Return of Power Cuts

Eskom winter loadshedding warning

As South Africa enjoys a temporary reprieve from load shedding, energy experts are warning that this period of uninterrupted power supply may not last through the winter season. Despite a notable improvement in Eskom’s energy available factor (EAF) and the implementation of the Generation Operational Recovery Plan, power cuts are expected to return as electricity demand increases with colder weather.

Recent Improvements and Temporary Reprieve

Two-Month Break: South Africa has experienced two months without load shedding in April and May, the longest period without power cuts since 2021.
Generation Operational Recovery Plan: Eskom credits this plan, started in March 2023, for the improved performance and reliability of its generation fleet. The plan includes accelerated maintenance, major plant refurbishments, and life extension projects.
Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF): A reduction in UCLF due to increased preventative maintenance has contributed to the temporary cessation of load shedding.

Expert Warnings

Despite these improvements, energy experts caution that the situation is fragile:

Professor Sampson Mamphweli: The head of energy at the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI) predicts the return of load shedding as winter progresses and demand rises. He warns that colder weather in June and July will put pressure on Eskom’s grid, potentially leading to stage two load shedding, with the possibility of stage five during peak demand periods.
Professor Hartmut Winkler: From the University of Johannesburg, Winkler supports this outlook, noting that the current reprieve is due to lower electricity demand and increased solar PV installations. He expects South Africa to oscillate between stage 1 and 3 load shedding during the winter months.

Eskom’s Winter Outlook

Eskom’s Winter 2024 Outlook presentation aligns with these warnings:

CEO Dan Marokane: Marokane indicates that the likely risk scenario for winter will limit load shedding to stage 2 and below, assuming an average of 15,500 MW of breakdowns. However, in a worst-case scenario with breakdowns hitting 17,000 MW, load shedding could escalate to stage 5.
Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa: Ramokgopa also cautions that load shedding is not completely behind South Africa, emphasizing ongoing efforts to improve the reliability of Eskom’s generating units.